Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in academia but hardly any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two essays that strive for objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over identity markers, taxes, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has got something to learn from the opposing arguments."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
